Who has the upperhand?
With the ALGS entering the final few days in EMEA and ALGS, one Apex Redditor has created a prediction model to work out teams LAN chances. The model, using "Monte Carlo Modelling" reveals some surprising numbers for some of the big hitters in each region.
12 teams (11 direct qualifiers and 1 Regional Final winner) will head to the Split 1 Playoffs from North America. 8 (7 direct qualifiers and 1 Regional Final winner) will qualify from EMEA. If the Regional Final winner has already qualified, that spot will be passed to the next placed team in the overall standings.
Perhaps most surprising is the position that XSET and OpTic find themselves in. They need a very strong end to the Pro League to make LAN.
Teams locked in for ALGS LAN
According to Raileys model, these are the teams that are essentially qualified for the ALGS Split 1 Playoffs in NA.
Name | Qual % | Points |
|---|---|---|
| DZ | 100.0% | 106 |
| COL | 100.0% | 80 |
| MST | 99.9% | 75 |
| LG | 99.2% | 75 |
| TSM | 96.1% | 71 |
| SSG | 94.9% | 70 |
| E8 | 91.6% | 68 |
Perhaps surprisingly, this model shows that Complexity are qualified for LAN. As a team that no one predicted to be in this position, this is a fantastic achievement. Their win last weekend hugely improved their LAN chances.
Other big names on that list will not come as a surprise. E8 however, who qualified via Pre Season qualifiers, will be very pleased to be on the cusp of LAN. It is a very rare achievement for a team to qualify to LAN without being directly invited to Pro League.
In EMEA, only newly-signed NAVI and Aurora are qualified. No other team has a 90% chance or above according to this model.
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What teams are in the mix?
Here are the North American teams that are competing for the last four (or five) slots at LAN:
Name | Qual % | Points |
|---|---|---|
| OXG | 78.5% | 63 |
| LGC | 76.9% | 54 |
| FUR | 68.0% | 51 |
| DSG | 61.5% | 49 |
| GKS | 51.5% | 56 |
| XSET | 38.2% | 42 |
| DIG | 29.3% | 50 |
| SEN | 22.0% | 36 |
| OG | 20.4% | 47 |
There are some very surprising statistics according to this model. Firstly, it is quite stark just how difficult OpTic and XSET's positions are. For OpTic to go from second at the 2023 ALGS Championship to not even qualifying for LAN would be a huge fall from grace.
They need both a strong set of results in their remaining games, and for other teams results to go their way. Of course, they could win Regional Finals, but that is a tall order. OpTic do have the capabilities to win a Match Point format event, but as they learned in Birmingham, it isn't easy.
FURIA will be frustrated at their last performance. Their poor showing on March 1, earning just a singular point, dropped their chances to make LAN by almost 20%. A good showing that day would have essentially secured their spot.
One major team is missing from this discussion. FAZE have just a 0.8% chance to make LAN, and might not even make the Regional Finals without improvement.
Alliance spot at LAN not secured
In EMEA, the race is a lot more open.
Name | Qual % | Points |
|---|---|---|
| o7 | 88% | 77 |
| E6 | 80% | 74 |
| Made In Heaven | 60% | 59 |
| Alliance | 54% | 67 |
| PassionUA | 53% | 57 |
| LCDF | <50% | 56 |
| cybercats | <50% | 65 |
| 2R1C | <50% | 64 |
| Team Portugal | <50% | 60 |
| AnC Outplayed | <50% | 58 |
o7 and Element 6 are in a good spot to qualify for ALGS LAN. They should be secure in their spots before Regional Finals next weekend.
Besides that, there is an open race for the final three or four spaces. Made In Heaven have been a surprise package in EMEA and sit with a good chance to qualify themselves. Alliance have significant work to do. They have improved since the arrival of Unlucky but are still at risk after a stuttering start to their season.
If the likes of Made In Heaven, PassionUA and LCDF falter in their 'game in hand' on Saturday Alliances chances will improve significantly. Not having Alliance at an ALGS LAN would be a shock, but they have a great track record at pulling things out the bag at the last second.
This weekend is set to be an incredibly exciting weekend of ALGS action. Stay tuned to esports.gg for full coverage of the ALGS and all things Apex Legends.
