ALGS Split 2 Regional Finals preview: 5 things to watch out for

The second split of Year 4 of the ALGS Pro League comes to a close this Sunday in the EMEA and North America regions. With such a fast-paced schedule, you'd be forgiven for being a bit behind ahead of the ALGS Split 2 Regional Finals.

With Match Point in effect, and spots at LAN on the line, it is sure to be an intense evening of ALGS action. We've got a full breakdown, as well as five key things to watch out for as the ALGS Split 2 Regional Finals unfold.

The ALGS Regional Finals are comprised of the top 20 teams from each regions Pro League. Here are the teams going head to head to lock in their LAN spot on Sunday.

According to modelling by Bereft13 a number of teams have already booked, or essentially booked their spots at LAN. Here are the teams with a 95% or higher chance of qualifying according to the model.

North America:

That leaves four spots in the balance in North America, out of 12.

EMEA:

In EMEA things are a bit less certain. Only half of the eight spots are booked (or very nearly) for the ALGS Split 2 Playoffs.

This Regional Finals will be the first time we have seen a POI Draft not done via "snake seed". Instead, the top team in each Region got first, and 21st pick. Second, 2nd and 22nd, and so forth. That means that the strongest (statistically) teams had the best pick of their drop spots.

During the Pro League, we've seen the strongest performances from Skyhook West. This was reflected in both number one picks being for this exact spot. The question is, will it pay off? A lot of zones during the Pro League regular season headed to Skyhook, which certainly will have helped skew those numbers.

However, you cannot deny that the fantastic loot that Skyhook West and Trials offers is a major advantage. But, did sacrificing a first pick on Storm Point mean both Team Falcons and Alliance didn't get a strong POI? Time will tell how the two teams perform between maps.

Cloud9 once again head into a Regional Finals knowing they need a strong performance to be sure of a spot at LAN. Last Split, they were almost trialling for a POI Draft. They dumbfounded everyone by landing Dome and Coastal Camp, but found success and qualified. Their chances sit at 68%, higher than this time last Split.

They also have stronger drop spots, especially for an early rotate playstyle. Both 'Jurassic' and Overlook are strong locations that should allow Cloud9 to play their game. Cloud9 have been inconsistent during the Split so far, finishing above 8th only once.

However, Cloud9 don't need anything better than that. 8th place would give them a 93% qualification chance, and even 20th place still gives Cloud9 a (slim) chance of a spot in Mannheim Germany.

Cloud9 have faced the pressure a Regional Finals brings once, and handled it exceptionally. They will be hoping for a repeat this Sunday.

In addition to the battle for a spot at the Split 2 Playoffs, EMEA will also see an intense battle for the Pro League title. As well as additional prize money and bragging rights, the winner will get a better draft position in Mannheim Germany.

Just two points separate Alliance and Gaimin Gladiators. The ALGS Split 2 Regional Finals will award points, like usual, based on where teams finish on the day. That means Alliance need to finish above Gaimin Gladiators, or Gaimin Gladiators need to earn three points more than Alliance.

With the uncertainty on how long a Match Point format tournament can go, this should be a really intense fight. It is likely that the top spot overall will chop and change as the day goes on.

It should be noted that FaZe Clan and Passion UA could also both win the title. They would have to finish in the top two, with both Alliance and Gaimin Gladiators having very poor performances in order to do so.

Team Falcons have been lethal on Storm Point, having a point per game average of close to double that of their nearest rival. This is phenomenal, and one of the strongest map performances in ALGS history.

This dominance has been slightly tempered by a middle of the road showing on Worlds Edge, where they rank 11th. However, Team Falcons drafted their first pick on Worlds Edge. This could make them incredibly dangerous on both maps.

The biggest question may come if (when) Team Falcons reach Match Point. Can they close it out on Worlds Edge, or will they need to wait for Storm Point to do so? This could create an interesting sub-plot in North America. Team Falcons will likely want to hit 50 points on Worlds Edge, so they get a clear two game run on Storm Point to close it out.

Additionally, will teams identify them as a major threat and try and target them? The Draft system means they cannot be landed on, and Checkpoint is a hard location to immediately run at due to its elevation.

No one at the start of Split 2 would have suggested neither Aurora or Ninjas in Pyjamas (formerly o7) would head into the Regional Finals with only a slim chance at LAN. It is very likely only one of the two teams can qualify, if either defy the odds to do so.

Both teams have less than a 10% chance of qualifying for LAN, according to modelling. Ninjas in Pyjamas have a 38% chance with a second place, so only a win will guarantee their spot but isn't the only option at least. 3rd place has a 10% chance, with that dropping to 2% for fourth. Top three is the absolute minimum for Gnaske, Zaine and Amphy.

For Aurora, chances are even slimmer. A second place finish is modelled as giving them a 1.5% chance to qualify, so besides a near miracle, only a win will do for Aurora. This is a remarkable position for them to be in, given their dominance in Split 1. They are being held back by the Draft System, but do at least have POI's that could allow them to build an edge playstyle.

Both teams undoubtedly have quality. Can either of them defy the odds and book their spot in Mannheim?

Stay tuned to esports.gg for full coverage of the ALGS Split 2 Regional Finals.