Model sets out ALGS LAN chances for TSM, Alliance & more cover image

Model sets out ALGS LAN chances for TSM, Alliance & more

Who has the upperhand?

With the ALGS entering the final few days in EMEA and ALGS, one Apex Redditor has created a prediction model to work out teams LAN chances. The model, using "Monte Carlo Modelling" reveals some surprising numbers for some of the big hitters in each region.

12 teams (11 direct qualifiers and 1 Regional Final winner) will head to the Split 1 Playoffs from North America. 8 (7 direct qualifiers and 1 Regional Final winner) will qualify from EMEA. If the Regional Final winner has already qualified, that spot will be passed to the next placed team in the overall standings.

Perhaps most surprising is the position that XSET and OpTic find themselves in. They need a very strong end to the Pro League to make LAN.

Teams locked in for ALGS LAN

According to Raileys model, these are the teams that are essentially qualified for the ALGS Split 1 Playoffs in NA.

Name
Qual %
Points
DZ
100.0%
106
COL
100.0%
80
MST
99.9%
75
LG
99.2%
75
TSM
96.1%
71
SSG
94.9%
70
E8
91.6%
68

Perhaps surprisingly, this model shows that Complexity are qualified for LAN. As a team that no one predicted to be in this position, this is a fantastic achievement. Their win last weekend hugely improved their LAN chances.

Photo EA/Joe Brady
Photo EA/Joe Brady

Other big names on that list will not come as a surprise. E8 however, who qualified via Pre Season qualifiers, will be very pleased to be on the cusp of LAN. It is a very rare achievement for a team to qualify to LAN without being directly invited to Pro League.

In EMEA, only newly-signed NAVI and Aurora are qualified. No other team has a 90% chance or above according to this model.

What teams are in the mix?

Here are the North American teams that are competing for the last four (or five) slots at LAN:

Name
Qual %
Points
OXG
78.5%
63
LGC
76.9%
54
FUR
68.0%
51
DSG
61.5%
49
GKS
51.5%
56
XSET
38.2%
42
DIG
29.3%
50
SEN
22.0%
36
OG
20.4%
47

There are some very surprising statistics according to this model. Firstly, it is quite stark just how difficult OpTic and XSET's positions are. For OpTic to go from second at the 2023 ALGS Championship to not even qualifying for LAN would be a huge fall from grace.

They need both a strong set of results in their remaining games, and for other teams results to go their way. Of course, they could win Regional Finals, but that is a tall order. OpTic do have the capabilities to win a Match Point format event, but as they learned in Birmingham, it isn't easy.

Photo EA/Joe Brady
Photo EA/Joe Brady

FURIA will be frustrated at their last performance. Their poor showing on March 1, earning just a singular point, dropped their chances to make LAN by almost 20%. A good showing that day would have essentially secured their spot.

One major team is missing from this discussion. FAZE have just a 0.8% chance to make LAN, and might not even make the Regional Finals without improvement.

Alliance spot at LAN not secured

In EMEA, the race is a lot more open.

Name
Qual %
Points
o7
88%
77
E6
80%
74
Made In Heaven
60%
59
Alliance
54%
67
PassionUA
53%
57
LCDF
<50%
56
cybercats
<50%
65
2R1C
<50%
64
Team Portugal
<50%
60
AnC Outplayed
<50%
58

o7 and Element 6 are in a good spot to qualify for ALGS LAN. They should be secure in their spots before Regional Finals next weekend.

Besides that, there is an open race for the final three or four spaces. Made In Heaven have been a surprise package in EMEA and sit with a good chance to qualify themselves. Alliance have significant work to do. They have improved since the arrival of Unlucky but are still at risk after a stuttering start to their season.

If the likes of Made In Heaven, PassionUA and LCDF falter in their 'game in hand' on Saturday Alliances chances will improve significantly. Not having Alliance at an ALGS LAN would be a shock, but they have a great track record at pulling things out the bag at the last second.

This weekend is set to be an incredibly exciting weekend of ALGS action. Stay tuned to esports.gg for full coverage of the ALGS and all things Apex Legends.