ALGS Regional Finals Preview: Could TSM miss LAN?

The North America and EMEA ALGS Regional Finals will take place this Sunday, March 17. In both regions, LAN qualification is on a knife edge for a handful of teams.

North America will send 12 teams to the Split 1 Playoffs, and EMEA will send 8. However, the ALGS Regional Finals winner will automatically qualify. If the winning team finds themselves in a qualifying position, their place gets passed down.

That adds an extra variable this weekend. Teams on the bubble need a dominant team to win. If someone unexpected snags first place, that could stop a big name from qualifying.

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Several teams in North America are locked in a tense battle this weekend. Anyone from Drop In Gaming all the way to Legacy could finish inside the top 12. And of course, anyone in the regions top 20 could still qualify for LAN.

This isn't the first time TSM have headed into an ALGS Regional Finals with their fate still undecided. They famously had to pull off a strong comeback to qualify for the Split 2 Playoffs last year.

TSM are in a better position than that season, but it feels surprising to not see the ALGS champions already qualified. It's fair to say that TSM have never really found their feet in the Season 20 meta.

ImperialHal, Reps and Verhulst haven't really had any shockingly bad days, but nor have they really had a pop off dominant performance that we expect from this iconic roster. Thankfully, TSM don't need miracles in order to secure their spot.

Any performance that sees TSM finish 13th or above will essentially secure their spot in the ALGS Split 1 Playoffs. Even 13th would be a poor result by TSM's standards, so there shouldn't be much cause for concern this Sunday.

However, should they have a very poor performance their chances of qualification do drop off significantly. Should TSM finish in 19th or 20th in the ALGS Regional Finals they will be at the mercy of other teams. Notably though, their chances are never 0.

And of course, TSM do have a pretty good record in Match Point events...

Cloud9 have no time to sit back and celebrate their recent pickup. They sit 12th right now, on the cusp of qualifying.

Cloud9, or GKS as they were known until this week, got incredibly unlucky on the final day of the Pro League Group Stage. XSET and Legacy both had very strong days, which weakened their chances of qualification.

Like TSM, Cloud9 don't need a huge performance in the ALGS Regional Finals but they do have to have a good day. With the tournament able to end at any point after six games, it can be difficult to secure the position you want when you don't have set finish.

So to be sure of their LAN position Cloud9 will be aiming for a comfortable top six position minimum, as quickly as possible. Cloud9's position very much depends on other teams. They benefit greatly from someone who is already comfortably qualified winning the Regional Finals.

That will mean the top 12 teams qualify, not 11. If a team like OpTic win, that would make Cloud9's chances much harder.

Overall, LAN is still in Cloud9's hands but there is little room for error. Only a strong performance will guarantee their spot at the ALGS Split 1 Playoffs.

For OpTic the math is a lot more simple. Only an ALGS Regional Finals win will guarantee their spot at the ALGS Split 1 Playoffs. There is a small chance that a second place finish would see them qualify (<30%) but they'd need a lot of things to go their way.

This tournament is starting to feel more and more like an all or nothing for the OpTic team. Skittlecakes revealed on Twitch that the he doesn't think that "people like each other on the team anymore" While this could just be a symptom of the pressure on this team signs are not good.

While it would be easy to write this OpTic Gaming team off, that would be foolish. It was only six months ago in Birmingham that this roster nearly won the ALGS Championship. While the meta and game has changed substantially since then, this is still the same incredibly talented roster.

Having a single mission might make things easier for OpTic. Instead of focusing on who is where, what place are we as things stand, and all the other distractions that teams like Cloud9 will face they can remain focused on first reaching 50 points, then winning a game.

EMEA has four less qualification spots for the ALGS Split 1 Playoffs. With a higher bar, the race is significantly less competitive. Cybercats have an outside shot at direct qualification, but in reality, anyone in 10th and below can only qualify for LAN with an ALGS Regional finals win.

Made In Heaven have been one of the surprise packages in EMEA. Taxington, Arctic and Sinetic were not on anyone's radars heading into the Pro League split. All three are relative unknowns, and have significantly less Pro League experience than a lot of their rivals.

However, they have performed fantastically across Split 1 and have a huge opportunity to qualify for their first ever ALGS LAN event on Sunday. The squad will perhaps be vulnerable to griefing, if rumours are to be believed.

A top seven finish will see Made In Heaven qualify for LAN. According to modelling, even a top 14 finish gives them an 80% chance to qualify. That means there isn't immense pressure to put down a huge result. One of the hallmarks of Made In Heaven's recent performances has been consistency. They've never finished below 11th all split, and have been inside the top ten in every matchday since the Season 20 break.

Of course, this team might feel the pressure on Sunday. This side has very little ALGS Regional Finals experience, and the opportunity to make a first LAN event could have an impact. If this team can focus on their game, avoid griefing and stay calm, a spot at the Playoffs should come their way.

LAN seemed all but sorted for Element 6 before the break. They won their first and third ALGS Pro League matches and were seemingly coasting to a great finish in the overall standings. However they find themselves in eighth heading into Sunday's ALGS Regional Finals.

Element 6 have struggled over their last few outings, posting three mid table results in a row. Should that theme continue, Element 6 will not qualify for the Split 1 Playoffs.

They need a top four finish to be completely guaranteed their spot at LAN. An 11th place finish gives them around an 85% chance of qualification. Certainly achievable for this roster.

However Element 6, like Made In Heaven, will have a target on their back. LCDF, who have also got work to do to qualify have been contesting them at Skyhook. It's unknown if this battle will extend all the way to the ALGS Pro League.

For two teams who both need a good day to fight seems counterproductive. Although, either team swapping drop spots would leave them without the macro knowledge and comfort they've built up over several months.

An additional spanner in the works comes in the form of GoNext. They have been landing at Trials in scrims, forcing LCDF into the east of Skyhook. GoNext only scraped into Regional Finals and need to win in order to qualify.

What happens on Worlds Edge could well be the make or break for Element 6 this Sunday.

LCDF, also included in the Skyhook saga, are the in form team heading into this Sunday. They have taken two second places in three gamedays since the Season 20 break.

Were it not for an abysmal performance in the A vs C matchup (when they are in the same lobby as Element 6) they'd probably be packing their bags for LAN already.

But, for teams like Element 6 and Made In Heaven LCDF are the a dangerous proposition. Their fantastic fighting skills allow them to rack up big games comfortably. That could see them race to the 50 point threshold very quickly, should they get going on Sunday.

They might struggle to close out a win with their playstyle, but projections show a second or third place finish would see them qualified. Even a top four finish gives them a <90% chance.

If LCDF can build up some momentum in game, they could be the team to cause some serious headaches for teams above them. If LCDF took second, and a team like Team Portugal, COLD or The Full English were to win, that could see a big shift in who represents EMEA at LAN.

The EMEA and NA ALGS Regional Finals take place this Sunday, March 17. Watch on PlayApex and follow live scores here.

Stay tuned to esports.gg for full coverage of the ALGS and all things Apex Legends.