A tough year for OG as they fail to qualify for Bali Major and are now at risk of relegation. Difficult road ahead to TI12.
OG's situation in 2023 thus far has been difficult and continues to be. After Quest Esports (formerly Ooredo Thunders) pulled a 2-0 upset against Team Liquid during their Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) match on May 30, OG no longer have a chance to attend Bali Major.
Moreover, with their current standings, OG are actually at risk of relegating to Division II. With the current 1-4 score line, OG need to win their last two series in order to remain at Division I. Unfortunately, this will not be an easy task as they will need to defeat Entity and D1 Hustlers. Both teams have the potential to threaten OG's stake.
What it takes for OG to avoid relegation
There are three key series that will have an effect on whether OG gets to remain at Division I.
- June 2, 9:00 a.m. PST - OG vs Entity
- June 2, 12:00 p.m. PST - D1 Hustlers vs Gaimin Gladiators
- June 4, 12:00 p.m. PST - OG vs D1 Hustlers
In order for them to guarantee their spot at Division I, they will need to beat both Entity and D1 Hustlers. Any other outcomes will lead to tiebreakers or relegation. The table below shows the permutations of series outcomes that will determine OG's fate. OG only has 15 percent chance to achieve the perfect scenario. On the other hand, there is a 31 percent chance for a guaranteed relegation.
Outcome Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Final Standings | OG remain at Div I OG [W] vs Entity D1H vs GG (N/A) OG [W] vs D1H OG: 3-4 D1H: 2 / 3-4 Entity: 2-5 | OG-Entity tiebreaker OG [W] vs Entity D1H [W] vs GG OG vs D1H [W] D1H: 3-4 OG: 2-5 Entity: 2-5 | OG-D1H tiebreaker OG vs Entity [W] D1H vs GG [W] OG [W] vs D1H Entity: 3-4 OG: 2-5 D1H: 2-5 | OG relegation OG vs Entity [W] D1H [W] vs GG OG vs D1H [W] Entity: 3-4 D1H: 3-4 OG: 2-5 | OG relegation OG vs Entity [W] D1H vs GG (N/A) OG vs D1H [W] Entity: 3-4 D1H: 3-4 / 4-3 OG: 1-6 |
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Hopes and dreams for TI12
As it stands, the odds are stacked quite heavily against OG. Only a thin thread separates the line between relegation and staying in Division I. As for their ticket to The International 2023 (TI12) in Seattle, with just 404 DPC points and no other way in acquiring more, OG can no longer directly qualify for TI12.
They will have to count on regional qualifiers. However, it is crucial for them to maintain their position at Division I otherwise they will have to go through a rougher path at the qualifier through the lower bracket.
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